Analytics
Resolved Yes on 9 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 81.5%. Yes opened at 30% on 4 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2024 to 9 Oct 2024, the highest close was 81.5% on 9 Oct 2024 and the lowest 17.5% on 5 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 43 points up, to 81.5% on 9 Oct 2024. $3.87M traded over the market's life.
71 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 4:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 4 Oct 2024 – 9 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2024 | 30.0% |
| 9 Oct 2024 | 81.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.61M |
| LGND | No | 3.41K |
| trenchlord | No | 3.06K |
| TrumpLover2024 | No | 1.6K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the HBO documentary" Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" currently scheduled to air on October 8, identifies someone other than Craig Wright, Len Sassman, Hal Finney, Dorian Nakamoto, Nick Szabo, Wei Dai, Adam Back, Gavin Andresen, Elon Musk, Jed McCaleb, David Kleinmen, Shinichi Mochizuk, Paul Le Roux, Gavin Wood, or Vili Lehdonvirta as the primary creator of Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If two or more individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Yes". If the documentary is not released by October 15, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi
| Wapka | No | 1.5K |
| abraham0x | No | 1K |
| Drth | No | 797.78 |
| Analogovnet | No | 632.06 |
| tariku | No | 597.31 |
| Kakami | No | 500 |
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