Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Nov 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 77.5% on 23 Nov 2023. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 23 Nov 2023 to 28 Nov 2023, the highest close was 99.5% on 28 Nov 2023 and the lowest 77% on 24 Nov 2023. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 95.6% on 27 Nov 2023. $34.59K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 29, 6:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 23 Nov 2023 – 28 Nov 2023, chart shows 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Nov 2023 | 77.5% |
| 28 Nov 2023 | 99.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ChrisHall | No | 201.15 |
| Outrageous-Plaster | No | 99.79 |
| janedoe | No | 4.35 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first ceasefire between Hamas and Israel pursuant to a hostage/prisoner exchange deal after the creation of this market lasts at least 4 full days (96 consecutive hours). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such ceasefire starts by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM IST (Israeli Standard Time), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible information and reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-hamas-x-israel-ceasefire-last-the-full-4-days
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