Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 34% on 13 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 51 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 40% on 15 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 27.5% on 16 Nov 2025. $1.89M traded over the market's life.
271 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 34.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Venomous6 | Yes | 41.72K |
| nineeeee | Yes | 33.2K |
| thelegendssaa | Yes | 28.64K |
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 26.63K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Gävle Goat, a traditional Christmas display erected annually in Gävle, Sweden, is set on fire by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM CET. The fire must be confirmed by an official Gävle Goat social media account, the City of Gävle's official website, or a consensus of credible reporting. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Gävle Goat is destroyed by other means this will not qualify.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhU2MIUaFlg
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-gvle-goat-burn-in-2025
| RedRunner | Yes | 26.32K |
| MrNGMI | Yes | 20.5K |
| MissWonderfun | Yes | 20K |
| JeremyWade | Yes | 15K |
| labubull2 | Yes | 12.99K |
| Erikjones2323 | Yes | 12.83K |
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