Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 11.5% on 1 Oct 2025 and the low 0.1% on 3 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 0.7% on 2 Oct 2025. $967.8K traded over the market's life.
121 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 8:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 3 points · 1 Oct 2025 – 3 Oct 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2025 | 11.5% |
| 3 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 178.25K |
| CrazyNine | Yes | 100K |
| chasefun | Yes | 55.42K |
| Kev69 | Yes | 39.73K |
| Pleasant-Philosopher | Yes | 31.6K |
| Intelligent-Gram | Yes | 23.53K |
| oslom | Yes | 14.47K |
| truculentmonkey | Yes | 13.3K |
| Cookedtan | Yes | 13.03K |
| Blitz90 | Yes | 9.75K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. If OPM does not announce a shutdown on October 1, 2025 by 10:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “No Shutdown.” Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end
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