Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 26% on 18 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 18 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 32.5% on 21 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 32.5% on 21 Oct 2025. $291.89K traded over the market's life.
211 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 13, 6:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 18 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 | 26.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chph1988 | Yes | 7.35K |
| Burry | Yes | 2.95K |
| rawrxd | Yes | 1.79K |
| CredibleSauce | Yes | 1.45K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-government-shutdown-end-by-763
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.41K |
| Ma2718 | Yes | 1.33K |
| lyyo01 | Yes | 1.32K |
| NX143 | Yes | 1.26K |
| kimsc | Yes | 928.53 |
| silverz | Yes | 904.98 |
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