Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 85.5%. Yes opened at 78.5% on 28 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 28 Feb 2025 to 2 Mar 2025, the highest close was 85.5% on 2 Mar 2025 and the lowest 78.5% on 28 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 85.5% on 2 Mar 2025. $50.98K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 3, 2:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 28 Feb 2025 – 2 Mar 2025, chart shows 75%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2025 | 78.5% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | 85.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| londonosaka | No | 30.34 |
| bistrogons | Yes | 0.02 |
| b122 | Yes | 0.01 |
| Eddie.Felson | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Firefly Aerospace Blue Ghost lunar lander successfully lands on the surface of the Moon by March 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A successful landing is defined as Blue Ghost making contact with the Moon without crashing, being destroyed upon impact, or tipping over. The lander must remain upright and stable upon touchdown. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Firefly Aerospace or NASA confirming whether Blue Ghost successfully landed. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-firefly-lander-successfully-land-on-the-moon-on-sunday
| traxtraxich | Yes | 0.01 |
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