Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 82%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 27 Sep 2023. Before it settled, across the 108 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2023 to 12 Jan 2024, the highest close was 54.5% on 21 Dec 2023 and the lowest 5.5% on 13 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 31% on 22 Dec 2023. $99.62K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 13, 4:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 108 points, 27 Sep 2023 – 12 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2023 | 51.5% |
| 12 Jan 2024 | 18.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2023 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2023-global-heat-increase
| No |
| 0.01 |
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