Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 19 Aug 2023. Before it settled, across the 147 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2023 to 12 Jan 2024, the highest close was 99% on 27 Dec 2023 and the lowest 17.5% on 19 Aug 2023. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 51.4% on 10 Jan 2024. $307.85K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 13, 4:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 147 points, 19 Aug 2023 – 12 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2023 | 17.5% |
| 12 Jan 2024 | 98.9% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.08°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of 1.08°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2023 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2023-global-heat-increase
| No |
| 100 |
| Stiggy | No | 81 |
| <0174 | No | 41.67 |
| winging_it_as_usual | No | 40 |
| zhaba | No | 33.33 |
| Crimson Tide 8E02 | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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