Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 18, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 18, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 18 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 5% on 30 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 47 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2026 to 18 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 5% on 30 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 17 Mar 2026.

45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 11:03 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 18 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Jan 2026	5.0%
18 Mar 2026	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	132.86K
e46m3	Yes	8.76K
cry.eth2	Yes	6.39K
yangguang0511	Yes	5K

10 of 45 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm