
Resolved No on 28 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 30% on 5 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 30% on 5 Nov 2025 and the low 0.5% on 25 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 16.5% on 6 Nov 2025. $198.34K traded over the market's life.
73 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 10:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 86 points · 5 Nov 2025 – 28 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | 30.0% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 120.78K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 10.34K |
| sanalid | Yes | 6.9K |
| Jerry911 | Yes | 6.54K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-three-fed-decisions-847
| rated | Yes | 5.75K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 3.26K |
| Datallman | Yes | 2.87K |
| AsadV | Yes | 2.2K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 2.13K |
| paspor | Yes | 1.79K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page