Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 26% on 14 Mar 2023. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 14 Mar 2023 to 1 Apr 2023 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 17 Mar 2023 and the lowest 1% on 21 Mar 2023. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 41% on 17 Mar 2023. $1.69K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 14 Mar 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2023 | 26.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Neon Quasar 161B | Yes | 12.26K |
| Proper-Reservoir | Yes | 239.1 |
| Jade Atlas 64FA | Yes | 33.89 |
| pinkstenis | Yes | 1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market may not resolve to "No" until March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-march
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
