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“Will the Democratic Party win the OK-02 House seat?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “OK-02 House Election Winner”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Nov 4, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 27, 4:44 AM UTC, Yes trades at 1.6¢, a 1.6% implied chance, $16.85K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.26K resting in the order book, a 0.8% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 222 daily price points from Jan 29, 2026 UTC to Sep 27, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.6% and 49.0%); 11 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.0% of the loaded shares; 63 recent public fills from 31 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 222 points · 29 Jan 2026 – 27 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 49.0% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 1.6% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.37K |
| resilience26 | Yes | 569.83 |
| PolyArbi | Yes |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ok-02-house-election-winner
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 417 |
| Haradwaith | No | 400 |
| cowcat | Yes | 375 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 100 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 100 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 72.99 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 54 |
| justApredictdog | Yes | 50 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard