Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 50% on 24 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 9 Feb 2026, the highest close was 56% on 4 Feb 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 9 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 2.1% on 9 Feb 2026. $7.83K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 10, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 9 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ringeo | Yes | 641.57 |
| KARACAC | Yes | 217.22 |
| Atomisation | Yes | 70.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party loses at least 1 seat in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of resolution, a party’s seat count will be compared to the number of seats that party held immediately prior to the dissolution of the House of Representatives for the 2026 Japanese snap election, which may differ from the number of seats won in the previous general election. If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the respective party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-lose-seats-in-japanese-snap-election
| Yes |
| 50 |
| karuro100 | Yes | 37.98 |
| vger7 | Yes | 20 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 15 |
| hesure | Yes | 10 |
| spreadmaker7 | Yes | 5 |
| isiba | Yes | 5 |
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