Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 9 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 7.5% on 9 Oct 2024 and the low 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. $21.49K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 53 points · 9 Oct 2024 – 30 Nov 2024 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2024 | 7.5% |
| 30 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 24.25K |
| NimbusSpiral | Yes | 310 |
| Nice2Meetya | Yes | 60 |
| ER03PT | Yes | 33.9 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Arizona in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Arizona for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Arizona has certified the vote. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arizona-margin-of-victory
| FlareZephyrus | Yes | 22.27 |
| jjjuiii | Yes | 20 |
| gguui | Yes | 20 |
| binbinii | Yes | 20 |
| kkkpp | Yes | 20 |
| sssee | Yes | 20 |
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