Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 18 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 63 daily closes on record from 18 Mar 2025 to 19 May 2025, the highest close was 99.6% on 19 May 2025 and the lowest 44.5% on 20 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 68% on 12 Apr 2025. $611.13K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 20, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 18 Mar 2025 – 19 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2025 | 45.5% |
| 19 May 2025 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 187.41K |
| TimeTraveler | No | 20.33K |
| andrefma | No | 5.26K |
A snap legislative election will take place in Portugal on 18 May 2025 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Portugal's Assembly of the Republic as a result of the upcoming election. If voting in the next Portugal election for the Assembly of the Republic does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Portugal’s government (e.g. via https://www.portaldoeleitor.pt/en/Pages/default.aspx). Note: The AD (Democratic Alliance), composed of PSD (Social Democratic Party), CDS–PP (People's Party) and PPM (People's Monarchist Party) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for AD (Democratic Alliance) will be assigned to the PSD (Social Democratic Party). The CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition), composed of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition) will be assigned to PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) .
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025
| No |
| 1K |
| P12 | No | 571.43 |
| Magicpt | No | 415.29 |
| Andypt | No | 390 |
| verggs | No | 279.8 |
| Galud0 | No | 217.14 |
| DYS | No | 111.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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