Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 19 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 97 daily closes on record from 19 Mar 2025 to 23 Jun 2025, the highest close was 30.5% on 19 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 0.1% on 30 Apr 2025. $414.49K traded over the market's life.
81 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 23, 11:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 97 points, 19 Mar 2025 – 23 Jun 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Mar 2025 | 30.5% |
| 23 Jun 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 384.31K |
| robh | Yes | 9.67K |
| mister24 | Yes | 5.78K |
The next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to according to the popular vote margin of victory. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the party that wins the most votes and the second-most votes. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count published by the Government of Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If neither the Conservative or Liberal win the most votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/canada-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory
| Yes |
| 4.5K |
| itsAlureon | Yes | 4.25K |
| Wowlvin | Yes | 4.03K |
| endeez | Yes | 3.75K |
| grokkk | Yes | 3.7K |
| Pollievremarket | Yes | 3.29K |
| moneytomuch | Yes | 2.81K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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