Will the Conservative Party win 13+ seats in Quebec?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$4.8K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 30, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 23 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 23 Apr 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 68% on 25 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 49 points down, to 0.4% on 30 Apr 2025. $4.75K traded over the market's life.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 1, 8:20 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 23 Apr 2025 – 30 Apr 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
23 Apr 2025	49.5%
30 Apr 2025	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Cosmic Maven E6CC	Yes	295
Bright Ledger A102	Yes	275
Bold Ledger 3A75	Yes	220
Bright Atlas DAD3	Yes	95

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Conservative party wins 13 or more seats in the House of Commons in Quebec as a result of the next Canadian general election. If voting in the next Canadian general election does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).