Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5% on 5 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 60 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2025 to 3 Nov 2025, the highest close was 33% on 29 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 0.3% on 31 Oct 2025. $73.54K traded over the market's life.
52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 4, 12:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 60 points, 5 Sep 2025 – 3 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2025 | 5.0% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 34.68K |
| yizhiyang-jianlaji | Yes | 10K |
| tienus | Yes | 2.88K |
The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal) as a result of this election. If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the fourth most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/). Note: If the GL/PvdA alliance splits and announce they will not run a joint list, this market will refer to the Labor Party (PvdA).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-4nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election
| Yes |
| 1.92K |
| wisser | Yes | 1.24K |
| Riximoncadacoookedme | Yes | 680 |
| VictorSticks | Yes | 434.81 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 344 |
| cowcat | Yes | 302 |
| Ziigmund | Yes | 200.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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