Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 17, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$430.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 17, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 17 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 63% on 21 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 58 daily closes on record from 21 Nov 2024 to 17 Jan 2025, the highest close was 100% on 17 Jan 2025 and the lowest 56% on 23 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 100% on 17 Jan 2025. $430.03K traded over the market's life.

88 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 12:50 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 58 points, 21 Nov 2024 – 17 Jan 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Nov 2024	63.0%
17 Jan 2025	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
qiyuntaotianBTC	No	16.75K
Covfefe	No	649.27
anon81273719	Yes	645.16

10 of 88 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.