Analytics
Resolved Yes on 9 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 94.5% on 22 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 22 Jan 2026 to 9 Feb 2026, the highest close was 99.8% on 9 Feb 2026 and the lowest 91% on 25 Jan 2026. $40.26K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 10, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 22 Jan 2026 – 9 Feb 2026, chart shows 85%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | 94.5% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | 99.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 13.83K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 325 |
| 16r0ob | No | 290.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election. If the results are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won in the House of Representatives of the Japanese National Diet. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market (including through merger), the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition (including through merger), with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/japan-general-election-2nd-place
| No |
| 253 |
| Lunar Ledger E007 | No | 200 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 195 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 131 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 85 |
| Michaeal | No | 70.38 |
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