Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win between 180 and 189 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$5.1K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 33% on 24 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 9 Feb 2026, the highest close was 33% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 9 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 18.5% on 25 Jan 2026. $5.09K traded over the market's life.

35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 10, 8:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 9 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
24 Jan 2026	33.0%
9 Feb 2026	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.33K
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	237
Jade Harbor B075	Yes	215.95

10 of 35 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).