What is the “Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “CDU/CSU margin of victory?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 14 Mar 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of party list votes received by CDU/CSU and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 German…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

6 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Mar 14, 6:33 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/cducsu-margin-of-victory) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?

Market referencewill-the-cducsu-win-by-6-8Updated Mar 14, 2025 UTC

politicsResolved

Yes · settled Mar 14, 2025 UTCpoliticsgerman-election

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$101.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Mar 15, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Mar 14, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

100%

Yes / No shares

373.06 / 37.34K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

368

Loaded notional

$36.56K

Yes buy at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Mar 14, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

+86 pts

Range

14.0% - 99.8%

Feb 15, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 14, 12:00 AM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Mar 14, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Mar 14, 12:00 AM UTC	99.8%	99.8%
Mar 13, 12:00 AM UTC	99.5%	99.5%
Mar 12, 12:00 AM UTC	99.6%	99.6%

CDU/CSU margin of victory?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “CDU/CSU margin of victory?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 14 Mar 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of party list votes received by CDU/CSU and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 German…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Mar 14, 12:00 AM UTC

99.8%

Mar 13, 12:00 AM UTC

99.5%

Mar 12, 12:00 AM UTC

99.6%