Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 20, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 20, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 20 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93%. Yes opened at 49% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 76 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 20 Mar 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93% on 20 Mar 2026 and the lowest 23% on 23 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 52% on 17 Jan 2026.

50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 21, 2:02 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 20 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Dec 2025	49.0%
20 Mar 2026	93.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	22.61K
Unused-Fiery	No	2K
Accomplished-Vice	No	1.85K

10 of 50 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.