Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the December meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 10, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$37.9K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 10, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.6% on 8 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 8 Nov 2025 to 10 Dec 2025, the highest close was 1.6% on 8 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Nov 2025. $37.85K traded over the market's life.

32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 11, 4:28 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 8 Nov 2025 – 10 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Nov 2025	1.6%
10 Dec 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	23.63K
Speppas	Yes	8.65K
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	1.12K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	1.08K

10 of 32 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's December 2025 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its December 10, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.