Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after December 2025 meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$13.7K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 11, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 15 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 15 Nov 2025 to 11 Dec 2025, the highest close was 46.5% on 15 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 11 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 8% on 16 Nov 2025. $13.71K traded over the market's life.

24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 12, 12:34 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 15 Nov 2025 – 11 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Nov 2025	46.5%
11 Dec 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	6.98K
GutoGG	Yes	1.17K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	1.12K

10 of 24 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the Selic rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Central Bank of Brazil's December 2025 meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its December 2025 policy meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.