Analytics
Yes is at 43%, down 37 points from 80% when the market opened on 15 Jul 2026.
Across the 105 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 34% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 39.5%; a month before, 35%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 65% on 16 Jul 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?”.
$2.53K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.8K, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 72 trades, $329.74 bought Yes and $762.14 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Measly-Knowhow with 924 shares; the largest No position is SalvadorAllende with 567. Ten wallets hold 85.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 30 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 7:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 105 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 80.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 43.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Measly-Knowhow | Yes | 924.12 |
| SalvadorAllende | No | 567.24 |
| jeanviande | No | 329.46 |
As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: - Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ - Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ - Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/switzerlands-november-referendum-what-will-pass-20260713145059520
| DuneMentat |
| No |
| 210 |
| kittycat67 | No | 183 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 108.79 |
| PCMTest | Yes | 100.12 |
| Monthly-Liability-Consulate | No | 100 |
| Vengeful-Hobbit | Yes | 71.24 |
| oliwett | Yes | 70.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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