Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$364.7K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 14, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 9% on 15 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 15 Feb 2025 to 14 Mar 2025, the highest close was 11.8% on 18 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.1 points down, to 0.1% on 24 Feb 2025. $364.66K traded over the market's life.

46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 1:57 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 15 Feb 2025 – 14 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Feb 2025	9.0%
14 Mar 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	157.96K
FlokiTech	Yes	10K
Gemflex	Yes	5.6K

10 of 46 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will according to the to the percentage of party list votes the Alternative for Germany (AfD, Alternative für Deutschland) wins in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).