Analytics
Yes is at 55.5%, up 4 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 8 Sep 2026.
The high was 58.5% on 7 Oct 2026 and the low 50% on 25 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 54.5%; a month ago, 51%. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 51% on 11 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Will the Aave USDC yield hit ___ in 2026?”.
The order book holds $498.78, with a 81.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 83 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 11, 2:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 35 points · 8 Sep 2026 – 11 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 45%–65%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Sep 2026 | 51.5% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 55.5% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any finalized daily supply APY datapoint for the Aave V3 USDC pool reported by DefiLlama is equal to or greater than the listed value for any date between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The APY value used for resolution is the "Daily" series displayed on the Supply APY chart, as shown by the "Total APY" figure when hovering over a datapoint. The pool referenced in this market is the USDC pool on Aave V3 on Ethereum mainnet, as identified by the resolution source URL below. A daily datapoint must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next day's datapoint is published, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure is finalized, or once the datapoint for December 31, 2026 is finalized without the listed value having been met. If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026 — for any reason, including unavailability of the resolution source — this market will resolve to "No". No substitute data source will be used. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to DefiLlama differing from other sources. Otherwise, once a finalized daily datapoint has met or exceeded the listed value, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the Aave V3 USDC pool page available at https://defillama.com/yields/pool/aa70268e-4b52-42bf-a116-608b370f9501, as presented there by default with no filters applied and without additional rounding.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-aave-usdc-yield-hit-in-2026
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