Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 33 points from 39.5% when the market opened on 22 Apr 2026.
Across the 183 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 76.5% on 26 Jun 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 19 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7%; a month before, 7%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 44.5% on 8 Sep 2026.
$3.48K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $797.25, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 49 trades, $480.9 bought Yes and $1.44K bought No.
The largest Yes position is GamerBolo with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is apiwat with 405. Ten wallets hold 97.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 183 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 39.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized AAVE TVL datapoint has a value lower than the TVL specified in the title on any day between the date of this market's creation and December 31. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the Aave page available at https://defillama.com/protocol/aave/, with TVL displayed in USD on the daily chart. The TVL value used for resolution will be the “TVL” value displayed for each daily bar. A daily bar will be considered finalized once the next day’s bar is published. If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used. If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-aave-tvl-go-below-10b-in-2026
| g0nzo |
| No |
| 251.37 |
| redpanda135 | No | 230.05 |
| AlAhmeda | No | 179.44 |
| XieGuangKun | Yes | 100 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 56.67 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 55 |
| razzil.db | No | 51.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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