Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group D?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 7, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.7K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 7, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 7 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.8%. Yes opened at 10% on 6 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 6 Jun 2026 to 7 Jul 2026, the highest close was 10% on 6 Jun 2026 and the lowest 2.6% on 4 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.3 points up, to 8.5% on 23 Jun 2026. $1.72K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 8, 1:59 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 6 Jun 2026 – 7 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
6 Jun 2026	10.0%
7 Jul 2026	3.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	4K
balthazar	Yes	2.1K
akko123	Yes	500
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the group from which the winning national team of the 2026 FIFA World Cup originated in the group stage. For example, if a team drawn into Group A wins the tournament, this market will resolve to “Group A”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.