Analytics
Yes is at 18.5%, down 32 points from 50% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 21 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 13.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”.
$156 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.89K since listing. The order book holds $269.64, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 39 trades, $56.66 bought Yes and $823.44 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 257 shares; the largest No position is commeowder with 437.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 1:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| commeowder | No | 436.92 |
| AJSV | Yes | 257.39 |
| nj23adsknml3 | Yes | 134 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-2-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027
| virgilia |
| No |
| 50 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 40 |
| financegaaaydog | Yes | 21.9 |
| mavsgseguritas | Yes | 20 |
| aimei | No | 16.67 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 15 |
| ddadsf | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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