Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 9% on 10 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 267 daily closes on record from 10 Apr 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 34% on 15 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 29% on 14 Apr 2025. $540.44K traded over the market's life.
86 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 267 points, 10 Apr 2025 – 31 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Apr 2025 | 9.0% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wowowweewow | Yes | 1.74K |
| contaaposta | Yes | 1.41K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.13K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between April 9 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025
| alilili1 | Yes | 999.93 |
| jayaradha | Yes | 800 |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 547.62 |
| Indigo Scout 4684 | Yes | 500 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 323 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 282 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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