Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 15% on 10 Apr 2025. Before it settled, the high was 39.5% on 15 May 2025 and the low 0.2% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 37.5% on 12 Apr 2025. $1.16M traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 267 points · 10 Apr 2025 – 31 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Apr 2025 | 15.0% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| comon119 | Yes | 345.01K |
| Sorrowful-Miscommunication | Yes | 1.45K |
| poliegabriel | Yes | 1.23K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between April 9 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-in-2025
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| jayaradha | Yes | 800 |
| PunterC | Yes | 500 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 438.99 |
| mgivehchi | Yes | 277.78 |
| Punpun8 | Yes | 262.91 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 189.99 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 181 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
