Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 94%. Yes opened at 47% on 10 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2025 to 21 Jan 2026, the highest close was 94% on 21 Jan 2026 and the lowest 45% on 15 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 94% on 21 Jan 2026. $19.16K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 10:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 10 Dec 2025 – 21 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | 47.0% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | 94.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bankstar | No | 606.15 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 245 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 203 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-by-march-31
| No |
| 200 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 133 |
| 26lkkdasdsa | No | 99.5 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 48 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 46 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 25 |
| Game6 | No | 6 |
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