Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 30 Apr 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70.5% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 2.1% on 29 Apr 2026. $1.1K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 7:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 33.5% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Yes | 5 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 4.99 |
| Quiet Tide 7848 | No | 1.85 |
| snookiemookie | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached. Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-10-year-treasury-hit-in-april
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