Analytics
Yes is at 44.3%, down 5.2 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 136 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80.4% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5.7% on 12 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 49.4%; a month before, 70%. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 55.6% on 14 Aug 2026.
3.0%+ is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026”, ahead of 2.8-3.0% at 31.4%.
$3K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $27.4K since listing. The order book holds $1.72K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.8K bought Yes and $3.09K bought No.
The largest Yes position is notlosecrypto with 1.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 78.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 94 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 136 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 49.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 44.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| notlosecrypto | Yes | 1.57K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.37K |
| HDGB | No | 802.76 |
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026. The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/japan-10y-bond-yield-end-of-2026
| flexibleagedbeef |
| No |
| 697.99 |
| mewmew1 | Yes | 535.07 |
| R0ont | Yes | 516.84 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 365.99 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 295.97 |
| Generous-Destination | No | 246.93 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 148.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
