Analytics
“Will Texas be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Mar 3, 2024 UTC. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 7 daily price points from Mar 1, 2024 UTC to Mar 7, 2024 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 50.0%); 2 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 41 recent public fills from 9 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Texas Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries. ‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election. The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa. The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 1 Mar 2024 – 7 Mar 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2024 | 50.0% |
| 7 Mar 2024 | 0.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 45.25K |
| Annonna | Yes | 5 |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.