Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 21 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 21 Jun 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 52.5% on 23 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 52.5% on 23 Jun 2025. $975.14K traded over the market's life.
192 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 21 Jun 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jun 2025 | 32.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FullSelfDegen | Yes | 16.14K |
| Patricknovak | Yes | 15.98K |
| Sexycars | Yes | 9.15K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly launches a fully driverless taxi service by July 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Any service that allows a member of the general public to summon and ride in a Tesla vehicle operating without any human—onboard or remote—actively controlling the vehicle will count. A human may be present in the vehicle or monitoring remotely for emergency intervention, but they must not be physically positioned to take control (for example, no safety driver in the driver’s seat) and must not actively steer, brake, accelerate, or otherwise drive the car under normal operation. A program that is restricted to Tesla employees, invite-only testers, closed-beta participants, factory self-delivery features, or the mere release of Full Self-Driving software for private owner-drivers will not qualify. Regulatory permits or approvals, press demonstrations, and prototype unveilings without live public ridership likewise will not count toward resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-launch-a-driverless-robotaxi-service-before-august
| Yes |
| 5.63K |
| Fentanyl78 | Yes | 4.44K |
| yayokunz | Yes | 4.37K |
| MINMANMON | Yes | 3.39K |
| THEGREATONE | Yes | 2.88K |
| Henryarkell | Yes | 2.34K |
| robby1110 | Yes | 2.32K |
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