Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 91.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 14 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 14 Mar 2026 to 28 Mar 2026, the highest close was 52.5% on 26 Mar 2026 and the lowest 6% on 17 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 6% on 17 Mar 2026. $1.35K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 29, 1:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 14 Mar 2026 – 28 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Mar 2026 | 8.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Kestrel 1A4F | Yes | 115.81 |
| ArbitrageFund | Yes | 20 |
| Arbga2026 | Yes | 20 |
| charles366 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team advances to the semifinals of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the semifinals of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament (e.g. they are eliminated, withdraws, disqualified), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament semifinals matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ncaa-tournament-team-to-make-semifinals
| MEV-PM | Yes | 19 |
| machachong | Yes | 10 |
| ffsFsfq | Yes | 8.73 |
| 1f2da719e0b226d9d91664b0cfe0659 | Yes | 5.09 |
| 0xMIX | Yes | 5 |
| R21llsa | Yes | 0.02 |
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