Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 76.5% on 1 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2026 to 4 Aug 2026, the highest close was 99.9% on 4 Aug 2026 and the lowest 47.5% on 2 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 84% on 3 Aug 2026. $437.06K traded over the market's life.
249 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 1 Aug 2026 – 4 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 76.5% |
| 4 Aug 2026 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| karambitclaw | No | 21.52K |
| ebobc | No | 11.9K |
| ljldkasjdl | No | 7.34K |
| tms2016 | No | 7.19K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-spider-man-brand-new-day-beat-avengers-endgames-opening-weekend-record-20260731162713556
| RRRPhantom | No | 6.79K |
| Oriolrq | No | 6.73K |
| patouossa | No | 6.23K |
| Wavy-Pocket | No | 5.14K |
| Engsty | No | 5K |
| egos2 | No | 3.27K |
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