Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 3% on 2 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 95 daily closes on record from 2 Dec 2025 to 9 Mar 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 3% on 2 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Feb 2026.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 10, 9:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 95 points, 2 Dec 2025 – 9 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2025 | 3.0% |
| 9 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 576.39K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 37.62K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 22.42K |
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-baden-wrttemberg-parliamentary-elections
| Yes |
| 5.68K |
| yzhaobk-nrt | Yes | 4.38K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 4.11K |
| alk19 | Yes | 4K |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 3.9K |
| Rapid Pulse C73C | Yes | 3.16K |
| NoMoreMister | Yes | 2.98K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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