Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 53% on 28 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 65 daily closes on record from 28 Dec 2023 to 1 Mar 2024, the highest close was 70.5% on 30 Jan 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Mar 2024. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 7.2% on 13 Feb 2024. $110.29K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 6:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 28 Dec 2023 – 1 Mar 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Dec 2023 | 53.0% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| artest | Yes | 7.94 |
| Thallium | Yes | 0.31 |
| cryptovlat | No | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
If any Starship successfully launches from its launchpad between December 26, 2023, and February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-spacexs-starship-launch-before-march
| No |
| 0.01 |
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