Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 70.5%. Yes opened at 47% on 14 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 92 daily closes on record from 14 Dec 2023 to 14 Mar 2024, the highest close was 88% on 4 Jan 2024 and the lowest 40.5% on 16 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 50.5% on 5 Jan 2024. $3.88K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 92 points, 14 Dec 2023 – 14 Mar 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2023 | 47.0% |
| 14 Mar 2024 | 70.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Thallium | No | 494.93 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
If a third Starship launch attempt successfully reaches >150km above sea level by March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches an altitude of 150 km above sea level will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-spacexs-3rd-starship-launch-reach-150km-before-april
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