
Resolved Yes on 25 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.2%. Yes opened at 55% on 11 Jun 2026. Before it settled, the high was 96.2% on 25 Jul 2026 and the low 55% on 11 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 78% on 12 Jun 2026. $226.82K traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 26, 6:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 45 points · 11 Jun 2026 – 25 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 55.0% |
| 25 Jul 2026 | 96.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cyberpizda | No | 66.44K |
| Piperdoodle | No | 15.83K |
| ash72 | No | 8.27K |
| CrazyArab | No | 6.13K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 13th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 13th launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-13
| Devoted-Route | No | 5.35K |
| KLccKris | No | 3.29K |
| idunnowhyyy | No | 2.53K |
| Eigen2278 | No | 1.93K |
| seeyouatzero | No | 1.18K |
| Insignificant-Puddle | No | 948.59 |
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