Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in August 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Sep 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$955

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 1 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 91%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 8 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 1 Sep 2026, the highest close was 95.3% on 31 Aug 2026 and the lowest 29% on 13 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 82% on 24 Aug 2026. $954.78 traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 1 Sep 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Aug 2026	32.5%
1 Sep 2026	91.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	286.95
Mojito9	No	40
Ethical-Bamboo	No	14
Ivory Quasar 70A8	No	14

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.