Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 27 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 27 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 30 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 13.5% on 9 Sep 2026. $733.14 traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 247.85 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 150 |
| jfkjdfj3 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-september-2026
New to prediction markets?
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| Satisfied-Authority-Calorie | Yes | 10 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| gogogo-v3 | Yes | 5 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
