Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 33% on 17 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 56.5% on 20 Jan 2026 and the low 1.7% on 29 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 9.5% on 21 Jan 2026. $13.94K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 31, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 29 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 33.0% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | 1.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.14K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 1.5K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 371 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 337 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 216 |
| abliter | Yes | 204.99 |
| Flimsy-Hat | Yes | 183.17 |
| Creepy-Colorlessness | Yes | 181.01 |
| manfi | Yes | 169.45 |
| m4thj | Yes | 156.57 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-january
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