Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 14% on 31 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 368 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 27.5% on 1 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 27.5% on 1 Jan 2025. $103.11K traded over the market's life.
92 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 368 points, 31 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2024 | 14.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 17.26K |
| gandalf | Yes | 7.91K |
| 1713888952017 | Yes | 3.53K |
This is a market on predicting the total number of SpaceX launches scheduled for the year 2025.
Resolution source: https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Marketplace-Lowballer | Yes | 584.51 |
| Golden Maven C83A | Yes | 527 |
| Violet Summit 602C | Yes | 383.7 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 279.41 |
| DanaverasuraKarna | Yes | 247.22 |
| LisaPeterson8285 | Yes | 212.29 |
| Blom2 | Yes | 210.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
