Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 27, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$73.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 27, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 27 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 56%. Yes opened at 50% on 4 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2026 to 27 Mar 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 66% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 20% on 5 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 56% on 27 Mar 2026. $73.33K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 28, 8:13 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 4 Mar 2026 – 27 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Mar 2026	50.0%
27 Mar 2026	56.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
BlackswanHunter	No	16.75K
TENETENET	No	500
Never-again	No	485.65
Monumental-Handful	No	150.53

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.