Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 84%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 18 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 18 Jul 2026 to 19 Jul 2026, the highest close was 16% on 19 Jul 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 18 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 16% on 19 Jul 2026. $1.1K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 20, 8:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 18 Jul 2026 – 19 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | 3.5% |
| 19 Jul 2026 | 16.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 168.59 |
| moneyline-scaled1 | Yes | 99.98 |
| RadioFreeZerg | Yes | 94.27 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 49.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the song that is performed first by Justin Bieber during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show. To qualify as "performed”, the specified performer must sing at least some of the lyrics of the specified song during this event. If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or Justin Bieber does not perform at this event, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/world-cup-final-first-justin-bieber-song-at-halftime-show-20260716221214663
| hesure | Yes | 49.99 |
| dominikne | Yes | 21.8 |
| Feline-Tourism | Yes | 20.08 |
| flywheelpoly | Yes | 20 |
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | Yes | 14 |
| AntiVaxxer | Yes | 12.43 |
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